Association of Hungarian Steel Industry (Budapest, Hungary)

Tardy P., Prof., Dr. Eng., Senior Consultant, e-mail: tardy@mvae.hu

The suitability of the model used for the calculation of scrap supply and demand was confirmed by the comparison of data calculated with data published in literature. That means that forecasts calculated with the help of the model can be considered realistic and the effects of changing the parameters used for the calculations (shares of pig iron and DRI charge, efficiency of scrap collection, indirect steel trade, etc) on scrap demand and availability can be analyzed. Before the onset of the crisis in 2008 the difference in scrap demand and supply was small resulting in stresses in the scrap market. After 2008 market stresses eased; scrap demand in developed countries decreased, their export capacity increased and global scrap supply exceeded demand. According to our calculations China is a net importer of scrap partly because the efficiency of its scrap industry (collection, processing, trading) is lower than that of the developed countries. In the second half of the 2010ies old scrap supply may strongly grow both globally and especially in China: more and more products manufactured from steel in the first decade of the new millennium reach their end of life. China may become self-sufficient after some years. According to our calculations — if recent steelmaking practice does not change — in the next decade no shortage stresses on the scrap market can be expected. However, climate protection regulation may force companies to increase their specific scrap consumption and that may change the market situation.

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