National Research Nuclear University “MEPhI” (Moscow, Russia):

Kharitonov V. V., Professor, Doctor of Physico-Mathematical Sciences, e-mail: VVKharitonov@mephi.ru
Kabashev K. V., Postgraduate
Kurel’chuk U. N., Magister

The article analyzes the state-of-the-art of natural uranium reserves and consumption in the global nuclear power engineering. The analysis states deficiency of this non-renewable resource for the long-period development of the said industry branch given the nuclear reactors available. The authors describe analytical “relaxation model” of predicting trends and peaks in natural uranium production based on its existing reserves and factual mining rate, level and technology. Using the offered model, uranium production profile is calculated for Canada, Australia, Kazakhstan, Russia, USA and the world to the end of the 21^st century. The calculations yield that the peak of uranium production in the listed countries can be reached during 2015–2040. In the other half of the 21^st century, uranium production in the world, at the operating deposits and with the available technologies will sensibly reduce, while in USA the natural uranium reserves at cost of 130 USD per 1 kg will be depleted. Thus, economically acceptable reserves of natural uranium, under conditions of its inefficient use in the existing slow neutron reactors, are low. They are under the energy-equivalent oil reserves and unequally accessible in different countries. The basis for the long-term development of nuclear engineering should be fast-neutron breeder reactors that enable enlargement of the nuclear engineering resource base 100 times and above owing to inclusion of isotopes of uranium 238 and thorium 232 in the fuel cycle. Commercially adoptable and safe fast neutron reactors should be widely introduced in the electric power industry as soon as the mid 21^st century while natural uranium is still sufficient for their startup. The proposed model is suitable for annual monitoring and adjustment of uranium production profile (as well as for other non-renewable resources), considering new data on input parameters (latest rates of change and level of annual output, refined evidence on uranium reserves by the beginning of a forecast period).

1. Kharitonov V. V. Energetika. Tekhniko-ekonomicheskie osnovy : uchebnoe posobie (Energetics. Technical and economic basis : tutorial). Moscow : MEPhI, 2007, 344 p.
2. The Global Nuclear Fuel Market. Supply and Demand 2011–2030. WNA report. 2011, 236 р.
3. Klingbiel T. The Uranium and Conversion Markets. U.S. Women in Nuclear Conference. July 18, 2005. Available at: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378012000313.
4. Zhivov V. L., Boytsov A. V., Shumilin M. V. Uran: geologiya, dobycha, ekonomika (Uranium: geology, extraction, economics). Moscow : RIS «VIMS», 2012, 304 p.
5. Peak uranium. Available at: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_uranium.
6. Ekonomiko-analiticheskie modeli dinamiki razvitiya yadernoy energetiki (Economical-analytical models of dynamics of development of nuclear energetics). Under the editorship of V. V. Kharitonov. Moscow : National Research Nuclear University «MEPhI», 2012, 76 p.
7. Kharitonov V. V., Kryanev A. V., Kurelchuk U. N., Dudin N. Yu. Ekonomicheskie strategii – Economic strategies, 2013, No. 3, pp. 58–72.
8. D. A. Cranstone. Historique de l’exploration minerale et de l’exploitation miniere au Canada et perspectives pour l’avenir. Ministre des Travaux publics et Services gouvernementaux Canada. 2002, p. 11.
9. Australian Energy Resource Assessme. Chapter 6. Uranium and Thorium. p. 171–202. Available at: http://adl.brs.gov.au/data/warehouse/pe_aera_d9aae_002/aeraCh_06.pdf.
10. Atomnaya promyshlennost Kazakhstana (Atomic industry of Kazakhstan). Fond natsionalnogo blagosostoyaniya «Samruk-Kazyna» (Sovereign Wealth Fund «Samruk-Kazyna»). Available at: http://sk.kz/page/atomnaja-promyshlennost.
11. Otkrytoe Aktsionernoe Obshchestvo «Atomredmetzoloto». Godovoy otchet-2011 («Atomredmetzoloto» JSC. Annual report-2011). Available at : http://www.armz.ru/media/File/facts/2012/ARMZ_ar2011-full1508-enc.pdf.
12. Alekseev P., Subbotin S. Strategiya poiska. Toplivoobespechenie atomnoy energetiki. Rosenergoatom (REA) – Searching strategy. Heat provision of atomic energy. Rosenergoatom (REA), 2011, No. 10, pp. 30–35.