Center for Strategic Research, College of Mining, National University of Science and Technology MISiS, Moscow, Russia:

L. A. Puchkov, Director, Corresponding Member of RAS
N. O. Kaledina, Professor, Doctor of Engineering Sciences, nok52@mail.ru

National University of Science and Technology MISiS, Moscow, Russia:

S. S. Kobylkin, Assistant Professor, Candidate of Engineering Sciences

In the previous years, many predictions of global energy consumption (GEC) were made [1–6]. The works [7, 8] offer new GEC forecasts based on approaches developed from the viewpoints of the basic physical laws of the least actions and conservation of mass and energy. It is proved that economics presents GEC as a physical process conformable with the basic laws of nature. The principle of the least action is governed by the potential function method that minimizes real function of GEC. The principle of conservation of mass and energy interconnects GEC and human biomass; this correlation is analogous to the mass and energy relationship in the mechanics of materials (Einstein law) and in quantum mechanics (Planck’s law). The energy constant of the correlation is the specific energy consumption per capita. The numerical value of the constant is 1.56 tons of oil equivalent per year. The economic activity of the mankind has a considerable influence on GEC, inducing its excessiveness and leading the world economy to depression. From the standpoint of the laws of nature, a world crisis is nothing but inadmissibly excessive energy consumption of a critical level upon reaching of which natural regulation of GEC is activated aiming to reduce GEC down to a level determined by the law of least action. The critical GEC level beneath which a world crisis is avoidable is assessed as 12.5%. The article gives data on rate of growth of GEC in 2012–2014, which was much lower than the world predictions. In 2014 excessive GEC diverted the economic advance toward the decline. This conforms with the theory of energy economics based on the principle of least action. Further development of the world crisis until GEC arrives at the optimum level is shown.

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