VNII Galurgy Stock Co., St. Petersburg, Russia:
A. S. Nikolaev, Senior Researcher, geolog_speleo@mail.ru

For the first time it is made an attempt to assess the impact of features of the geological structure of the waterproof formation and suprasalt sediments on their state during undermining in the conditions of the Upper Kama deposit of potassium and magnesium salts. To assess the role of geological features in the destruction of the massif there were used the methods of the regression analysis, including multiple correlation and principal components method. The quantitative expression of the degree of danger of undermining is determined by sedimentation of the roof of the upper seam V(cm) which results in the destruction of waterproof formation and there is a risk of penetration of suprasalt water into the mine. The studies did not confirm the influence of the “anomalous” structure of waterproof formation on the undermined rock massif, except for completeness of the waterproof formation cut. It was found that the behavior of deformable rock mass is definitely influenced by suprasalt rock, that layers of rock salt — is not the only or the main factor determining the intensity and magnitude of the deformations of undermining formation of saliferous and suprasalt rock. The results showed that, based on the pair values of the correlation coefficients, it is may be concluded that the values of destroying V(cm) mainly determined by the following conditions: occurrence depth of seams being mined, total thickness of layers of rock salt of waterproof formation, occurrence depth of waterproof formation, depth of transition member of salt-marlaceous formation1, thickness of suprasalt sediments, number of rock salt layers in a waterproof formation, thickness of terrigenous-carbonate and saltmarlaceous formations.The equation of multiple regression showed that the following conditions are defined: the occurrence depth of the seams being mined, the number of layers of carnallite, thickness of covering rock salt and terrigenous-carbonate formation. There are identified four factors influencing the destruction of the waterproof formation; mining thickness and closeness of seams; the availability of thick carnallite layers in waterproof formation, thickness of terrigenous-carbonate formation; the presence of transition member ant total thickness of salt layers in the waterproof formation. The revealed regularities allow to depart from the qualitative determination of the reliability of the waterproof formation and move it to the quantitative estimates, taking into account the influence of the geological features of the suprasalt sediments.
The studies were conducted under the leadership of chief researcher, doctor of geologicalmineralogical sciences, Professor V. I. Raevskiy, theoretical foundations and software implementation of the geomechanical calculations were developed by a leading researcher, Candidate of Engineering sciences A. G. Olovyannyi.

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