National Research Technological University – MISIS, Moscow, Russia:

M. Kh. Peshkova, Professor, Doctor of Economic Sciences, mpeshkova@mail.ru

In focus are the issues of development in industrial regions based on management of man-made mineral formations (MMF, understood as man-made deposits left after mine closure, i.e. mine waste), which will allow replenishing mineral and raw materials supply base, creating extra jobs and improving considerably ecological situation. The participation of the state in socio-economic development in industrial regions in the form of developed legally enforceable enactments and effective Federal Laws in the territories of special status aimed at increase in their investment attractiveness is assessed. For the evaluation of investment attractiveness of MMF management projects in the territories of advanced socio-economic development and for the cost-to-use analysis of the governmental support of such projects, the author proposes the probabilistic financial model accounting for risk. The model is based on the appraisal of a project net present value determined through introduction of money flows with a certain increase in their variation as a forecast period extends, with regard to general and specific kinds of risk. The objective function in the model is the increment (or at least non-shrinkage) in net present value with allowance for the risk component in proportion to the extension of the project implementation period and for the positive NPV by the final date. NPV is calculated with account for the correction of money flows by the value of their possible scatter in conformity with the assumed confidence probability. In this case, positive money flows are corrected towards lower values, and correction of negative money flows is towards higher values. The efficiency or significance of the governmental support of specific projects is suggested to evaluate from the standpoint of the decrease in investment risk. The application of the proposed model is exemplified by evaluation of potential processability of coal mine waste.

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