Sergo Ordzhonikidze Russian State Geological Prospecting University, Moscow, Russia:

M. M. Cherepansky, Head of Chair, Doctor of Geologo-Mineralogical Sciences, vodamch@mail.ru
O. A. Karimova, Associate Professor, Candidate of Geologo-Mineralogical Sciences
O. E. Vyazkova, Professor, Doctor of Geologo-Mineralogical Sciences

Institute of Water Problems, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia:

A. V. Dzyuba, Senior Researcher, Candidate of Geographic Sciences

The article addresses impact of nature and technology on generation and volume of groundwater component in river flow. The regional research into formation of groundwater in the west of the Moscow artesian basin in the 1960s–90s set the scientific and methodical framework for the areal studies of river and artesian basins. Aiming to estimate the effect of the current climate changes and anthropogenic activity on groundwater, a simplified though integrated approach composed of two main blocks, i.e. climate and geology–hydrogeology, is proposed. In terms of the western Moscow artesian basin, the statistical analysis of the long-term variation in the hydrometeorological characteristics of groundwater recharge over the period of the late eighty years is performed. The module estimates of possible changes in the climatic parameters are obtained for the nearest 15 years. The reliable knowledge on the underground recharge of rivers requires the joint analysis of the surface and underground flows within a catch basin with the substantiation of nature and rate of the interaction between these two regimes. According to the results obtained for the west of the Moscow artesian basin, groundwater of the top hydrodynamic zone aquifers are statistically insensitive relative to the modern climatic fluctuations but exposed to anthropogenic impact. It is emphasized that the Upper Dnepr in the middle of the basin will incur a deficit of 13% of underground inflow in case of groundwater use. In the first and third water-resources regions, the impact on the groundwater component is low (2%). In the first region, the low impact, even in case of heavy groundwater withdrawal, is conditioned by the presence of thick low Carboniferous argillaceous deposits. In the third region, there are no large water consumers though there is a good connection between ground and surface water. On the whole, in the Upper Dnepr basin, the groundwater flow may reduce by 6% in the future. It is suggested to obtain the same estimates in the Dnepr River basin in the west of the Moscow artesian basin in the neighborhood of Bryansk and Kursk where groundwater management is heavier.

1. Zektser I. S. Patterns and Research Methodology of Groundwater Flow Formation. Moscow : Nauka, 1977. 173 p.
2. Prodanov A. N., Tyulkin A. P., Zoteev O. V. Prospects of application of technologies of rock refuse paste thickening for coffin reclamation. Tsvetnye Metally. 2015. No. 12. pp. 13–18. DOI: 10.17580/tsm.2015.12.02
3. Lepikhin A. P., Perepelitsa D. I., Nechaeva S. V., Skopinov M. V. Hydrological aspects of estimation of consequences of subsidence of territories due to large-scale mining works. Eurasian Mining. 2013. No. 2. pp. 46–48.
4. Kurilenko V. V., Khaykovich I. M. Mineral deposits development areas environmental pollution assessment technique. Obogashchenie Rud. 2015. No. 3. pp. 56–60. DOI: 10.17580/or.2015.03.10
5. Rossman N. R., Zlotnik V. A., Rowe C. M., Szilagyi J. Vadose zone lag time and potential 21^st century climate change effects on spatially distributed groundwater recharge in the semi-arid Nebraska Sand Hills. Journal of Hydrology. 2014. Vol. 519. pp. 656–669.
6. Rossman N. R., Zlotnik V. A. Review: Regional groundwater flow modeling in heavily irrigated basins of selected states in the western United States. Hydrogeology Journal. 2013. Vol. 21, Iss. 6. pp. 1173–1192.
7. Barthel R., Banzhaf S. Groundwater and Surface Water Interaction at the Regional-scale – A Review with Focus on Regional Integrated Models. Water Resources Management. 2016. Vol. 30, Iss. 1. pp. 1–32.
8. Zektser I. S. (Ed.). Underground Water of the World: Resources, Use, Prediction. Moscow : Nauka, 2007. 438 p.
9. Cherepansky M. M. Regional Estimates of Rover Flow Reduction under Groundwater Withdrawal. Moscow : NIA-Priroda, 2006. 156 p.
10. Dzyuba A. V. Formalization of the teleconnection of the North Atlantic oscillation and temperature regime in the Atlantic-Eurasian subpolar zone. Russian Meteorology and Hydrology. 2009. Vol. 34, No. 5. pp. 274–284.
11. Zektser I. S., Dzyuba A. V. Uncertainties in the Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Groundwater. Episodes. 2015. Vol. 38, No. 1. pp. 49–53.
12. Dzyuba A. V., Loginov V. V. On the question of the reliability of estimates of climatedriven changes in groundwater resources. Water: chemistry and ecology. 2017. No. 3. pp. 46–55.
13. Loginov V. F., Mikutsky V. S. Climate Change: Trends, Circles and Pauses. Minsk : Belaruskaya navuka, 2017. 179 p.
14. Stocker T. F., Qin D., Plattner G.-K., Tignor M. M. B., Allen S. K. et al. Climate Change 2013 – The Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge : Cambridge University Press, 2013. 1552 p.
15. Phillips A. S., Deser C., Fasullo J. Evaluating Modes of Variability in Climate Models. Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union. 2014. Vol. 95, No. 49. pp. 453–455.
16. Cherepansky M. M. Theoretical Framework for Hydrogeological Prediction of Groundwater Withdrawal Impact on River Flow. Moscow : NIA-Priroda, 2005. 260 p.
17. Water Management and Preservation Plan of the Russian Dnepr River Section. Available at: http://www.m-obvu.ru/activity/proekty (accessed: 19.04.2018).
18. Danilov-Danilyan V. I. (Ed.). Rivers and Lakes of the World: Encyclopedia. Moscow : Izdatelstvo «Entsiklopediya», 2012. 928 p.
19. Stepkina N. V. Information Bulletin on the Smolensk Region Interior in 2014. Smolensk, 2015. Iss. 20. 150 p.
20. Yazvin L. S., Shestopalov V. M., Cherepansky M. M. (Eds.). Current Status of Drinking Groundwater Sources in the Dnepr River Basin. Minsk : Belsens, 2004. 87 p.
21. Zverev V. P. Water in the Earth. Moscow : Nauchnyi mir, 2009. 252 p.