Energy Research Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia:

Yu. A. Plakitkin, Head of the Center for Innovative Development in Energy Sector, Professor, Doctor of Economic Sciences
L. S. Plakitkina, Head of the Research Center for Coal Industry and Russia and in the World, Candidate of Engineering Sciences, luplak@rambler.ru
K. I. Diyachenko, Senor Researcher, Research Center for Coal Industry and Russia and in the World, Candidate of Engineering Sciences

This is the end part of the article published in Gornyi Zhurnal No. 7-2019. The artile presents the basic foreseeable technologies to be implemented at each stage of technological advancement in the coal industry of Russia up to 2040 in the area of coal mining and preparation in the framework of Programs Industry-4.0 and Digital Economy of the Russian Federation (innovative and conservative scenarios). The calculation data of the innovative scenario efficiency show that application the Intelligent Industrial Internet of Things in combination with digitization can facilitate the labor productivity increase by up to 20–35 % and the cost reduction by 10–20%. The conservative scenario of advancement in the coal industry is less effective. The simulation modeling by Finpromugol determines basic macroeconomic indices for the coal industry development up to 2040, as well as increment in the predicted efficiency factors up to 2040. The discussed scenarious differ essentially in the range of innovation utilization. In the innovative scenario, by the targeted stages of technological renovation in the industry up to 2040, the key assests will be totallty replaced by the qualitatively new, high-productive mechanical facilities. As a result, the paradigm of the retrun on assests in the industry will change: it should transit from the long-term decrease to the systemic growth in the framework of the innovative scenario. The conservative scenario features the persistent trend of reduction in efficiency of investments and key assets. On the whole, the innovative scenario as against the conservative scenario conforms with the intention of the state regulatior to transfer from the resource-type economy to the intelligent innovative economy. Based on the accomplished calculations, it is found that percentage of coal in GDP and the share of coal export relative to GDP of the country lower in the innovative scenario. At the same time, at higher indices of effectiveness in the innovative scenario of the coal industry development, the socioeconomic risks associated with labor saving and payroll reduction can also elevate.
This study was partly supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research in the framework of project No. 18-010-00467: Economic Indicators and Technology Parameters for Coal Industry ion Russia up to 2035 upon the Change in the Vector for Global Technological Innovation due to Industry-4.0 Program Implementation.

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